Tropical Weather Outlook: 2 areas being monitored, up to 80% development odds
Issued Oct 17, 2026 at 23:21 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
Storms in this outlook:
Hurricane Trudy — track & advisories →
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 27 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 32.5 by this date.
- New area in the Atlantic: 1. Off the East Coast of the United States — 30% 7-day odds
- Odds raised for 1. South of Southern Mexico (Eastern Pacific): 70% → 80%
Development areas (2)
Atlantic
1. Off the East Coast of the United States 48h 0% 7-day 30%
1. Off the East Coast of the United States: A strong non-tropical low pressure area is expected to form by Sunday night off the southeast coast of the United States. This low is likely to move slowly and erratically through the middle of next week, and some subtropical development is possible during this time. Regardless of development, this system will cause high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf along portions of the U.S. East Coast. Please consult statements and warnings from local National Weather Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center for more information, along with
Eastern Pacific
1. South of Southern Mexico 48h 0% 7-day 80%
1. South of Southern Mexico: An area of low pressure is forecast to form well offshore of southern Mexico within a couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form around the middle of next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward, well south of Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
102
ABNT20 KNHC 172321
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Off the East Coast of the United States:
A strong non-tropical low pressure area is expected to form by
Sunday night off the southeast coast of the United States. This low
is likely to move slowly and erratically through the middle of next
week, and some subtropical development is possible during this
time. Regardless of development, this system will cause high winds,
coastal flooding, and dangerous surf along portions of the U.S. East
Coast. Please consult statements and warnings from local National
Weather Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center for more
information, along with High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Blake
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
196
ABPZ20 KNHC 172320
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Oct 17 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Trudy, located offshore of southwestern Mexico.
South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form well offshore of
southern Mexico within a couple of days. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical
depression is likely to form around the middle of next week while
it moves westward to west-northwestward, well south of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Blake
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Recent issuances
Oct 17, 2026 at 23:21 UTC — viewing
2 areas · ≤80%
Oct 17, 2026 at 17:23 UTC
1 area · ≤70%
Oct 17, 2026 at 11:38 UTC
1 area · ≤70%
Oct 17, 2026 at 05:05 UTC
1 area · ≤70%
Oct 16, 2026 at 23:15 UTC
1 area · ≤60%
Oct 16, 2026 at 17:21 UTC
1 area · ≤60%
Oct 16, 2026 at 11:36 UTC
1 area · ≤60%
Oct 16, 2026 at 05:16 UTC
1 area · ≤50%
Oct 15, 2026 at 23:10 UTC
1 area · ≤50%
Oct 15, 2026 at 17:30 UTC
1 area · ≤40%
Oct 15, 2026 at 11:36 UTC
1 area · ≤20%
Oct 15, 2026 at 05:17 UTC
1 area · ≤20%