Tropical Weather Outlook: 1 area being monitored, up to 40% development odds
Issued Oct 15, 2026 at 17:30 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
Storms in this outlook:
Hurricane Trudy — track & advisories →
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 27 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 32.2 by this date.
- Odds raised for 1. South of Southern Mexico (Eastern Pacific): 20% → 40%
Development areas (1)
Eastern Pacific
1. South of Southern Mexico 48h 0% 7-day 40%
1. South of Southern Mexico: An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of southern Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form during the second half of next week while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the east to central portion of the East Pacific. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 151135
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
896
ABPZ20 KNHC 151730
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Simon, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, and on Hurricane
Trudy, located several hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco,
Mexico.
South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of southern
Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and
a tropical depression could form during the second half of next week
while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over
the east to central portion of the East Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Recent issuances
Oct 15, 2026 at 17:30 UTC — viewing
1 area · ≤40%
Oct 15, 2026 at 11:36 UTC
1 area · ≤20%
Oct 15, 2026 at 05:17 UTC
1 area · ≤20%
Oct 14, 2026 at 23:02 UTC
0 areas
Oct 14, 2026 at 17:22 UTC
0 areas
Oct 14, 2026 at 11:13 UTC
0 areas
Oct 14, 2026 at 05:17 UTC
0 areas
Oct 13, 2026 at 23:16 UTC
0 areas
Oct 13, 2026 at 17:05 UTC
1 area · ≤0%
Oct 13, 2026 at 11:17 UTC
2 areas · ≤100%
Oct 13, 2026 at 05:19 UTC
2 areas · ≤100%
Oct 12, 2026 at 23:07 UTC
2 areas · ≤100%