Tropical Weather Outlook: 1 area being monitored, up to 20% development odds
Issued Oct 15, 2026 at 05:17 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
Storms in this outlook:
Tropical Storm Trudy — track & advisories →
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 27 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 32.2 by this date.
- New area in the Eastern Pacific: 1. South of Southern Mexico — 20% 7-day odds
Development areas (1)
Eastern Pacific
1. South of Southern Mexico 48h 0% 7-day 20%
1. South of Southern Mexico: An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of southern Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development thereafter while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 150513
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 150517
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Simon, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, and on Tropical Storm
Trudy, located several hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco,
Mexico.
South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of southern
Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development thereafter
while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Gibbs
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Recent issuances
Oct 15, 2026 at 05:17 UTC — viewing
1 area · ≤20%
Oct 14, 2026 at 23:02 UTC
0 areas
Oct 14, 2026 at 17:22 UTC
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Oct 14, 2026 at 11:13 UTC
0 areas
Oct 14, 2026 at 05:17 UTC
0 areas
Oct 13, 2026 at 23:16 UTC
0 areas
Oct 13, 2026 at 17:05 UTC
1 area · ≤0%
Oct 13, 2026 at 11:17 UTC
2 areas · ≤100%
Oct 13, 2026 at 05:19 UTC
2 areas · ≤100%
Oct 12, 2026 at 23:07 UTC
2 areas · ≤100%
Oct 12, 2026 at 17:03 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Oct 12, 2026 at 11:32 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%