Tropical Weather Outlook: 1 area being monitored, up to 70% development odds
Issued Oct 10, 2026 at 17:35 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 26 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 31.7 by this date.
- New area in the Eastern Pacific: 1. South of Southwestern Mexico — 70% 7-day odds
- No longer tracked: 1. South of Guatemala (Eastern Pacific)
Development areas (1)
Eastern Pacific
1. South of Southwestern Mexico 48h 0% 7-day 70%
1. South of Southwestern Mexico: An area of low pressure is forecast to develop south or southwest of the coast of Mexico by early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle or latter half of next week as the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 101733
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias, located inland over central Alabama.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101735
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rachel, located several hundred miles southwest of Punta
Baja, Mexico, and on Hurricane Simon, located about one hundred
miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop south or southwest of
the coast of Mexico by early next week. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by the middle or latter half
of next week as the system moves generally west-northwestward at
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Recent issuances
Oct 10, 2026 at 17:35 UTC — viewing
1 area · ≤70%
Oct 10, 2026 at 11:43 UTC
1 area · ≤70%
Oct 10, 2026 at 05:16 UTC
1 area · ≤70%
Oct 9, 2026 at 23:17 UTC
1 area · ≤70%
Oct 9, 2026 at 17:15 UTC
1 area · ≤70%
Oct 9, 2026 at 11:03 UTC
1 area · ≤60%
Oct 9, 2026 at 05:07 UTC
1 area · ≤60%
Oct 8, 2026 at 23:18 UTC
1 area · ≤50%
Oct 8, 2026 at 17:13 UTC
1 area · ≤50%
Oct 8, 2026 at 11:38 UTC
1 area · ≤40%
Oct 8, 2026 at 05:14 UTC
1 area · ≤40%
Oct 7, 2026 at 23:55 UTC
1 area · ≤30%