Tropical Weather Outlook: 1 area being monitored, up to 70% development odds
Issued Oct 9, 2026 at 17:15 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 26 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 31.5 by this date.
- Odds raised for 1. South of Guatemala (Eastern Pacific): 60% → 70%
Development areas (1)
Eastern Pacific
1. South of Guatemala 48h 0% 7-day 70%
1. South of Guatemala: An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of Guatemala early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late next week as the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 091715
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Isaias, located over the north-central Gulf of America.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Brown
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 091715
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California Peninsula, and on Hurricane Simon, located a
couple of hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico.
South of Guatemala:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of
Guatemala early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by late next week as the system moves
generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Brown
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Recent issuances
Oct 9, 2026 at 23:17 UTC
1 area · ≤70%
Oct 9, 2026 at 17:15 UTC — viewing
1 area · ≤70%
Oct 9, 2026 at 11:03 UTC
1 area · ≤60%
Oct 9, 2026 at 05:07 UTC
1 area · ≤60%
Oct 8, 2026 at 23:18 UTC
1 area · ≤50%
Oct 8, 2026 at 17:13 UTC
1 area · ≤50%
Oct 8, 2026 at 11:38 UTC
1 area · ≤40%
Oct 8, 2026 at 05:14 UTC
1 area · ≤40%
Oct 7, 2026 at 23:55 UTC
1 area · ≤30%
Oct 7, 2026 at 17:21 UTC
1 area · ≤30%
Oct 7, 2026 at 11:37 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%
Oct 7, 2026 at 05:14 UTC
2 areas · ≤90%