Tropical Weather Outlook: 1 area being monitored, up to 60% development odds
Issued Oct 9, 2026 at 05:07 UTC by the National Hurricane Center · new outlooks every 6 hours
StormTracking analysis
The 2026 season has produced 26 storms so far — behind the 2015–2025 average of 31.5 by this date.
- Odds raised for 1. South of Guatemala (Eastern Pacific): 50% → 60%
Development areas (1)
Eastern Pacific
1. South of Guatemala 48h 0% 7-day 60%
1. South of Guatemala: An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of Guatemala early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form as it moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
Official NHC text — Atlantic
en Español
103
ABNT20 KNHC 090503
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Isaias, located over the central Gulf of America.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Gibbs
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Official NHC text — Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 090507
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Oct 8 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California Peninsula, and on Hurricane Simon, located a
couple of hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico.
South of Guatemala:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of
Guatemala early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some gradual development of this system thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form as it moves generally
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
&&
$$
Forecaster Evans/Gibbs
Source: NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (public domain). Analysis above is StormTracking's own.
Recent issuances
Oct 9, 2026 at 05:07 UTC — viewing
1 area · ≤60%
Oct 8, 2026 at 23:18 UTC
1 area · ≤50%
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Oct 7, 2026 at 11:37 UTC
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Oct 6, 2026 at 23:19 UTC
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Oct 6, 2026 at 17:11 UTC
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Oct 6, 2026 at 11:33 UTC
3 areas · ≤90%